OSU 2007-08

[lost]

I dont see how Okie State is going to beat Minny in a dual this year, their two horses are at 133 and 141 where they are pretty much tossups against reiter and manny. Mason will be a favorite at 165 at 174 a slight favorite. 197 is probably okie states and at this point in time rosholt will be favored over nord/berhow (but I expect that to change).

125, 149, 157 and 184 are all minnys several of them probably by bonus points, and if mason is 165 then dretsch will be a heavy favorite at 174.

Ill break it down weight by weight in fact because you've got me thinking here

125: Ness by Fall, ness got better and better as the season went along and he decked shinn with relative ease at nationals I dont see why he wouldnt be able to do it again, hes a pinner through and through.

133: Scott by Decision
Your guess is as good as mine to what happens here Both are extremely good on top and have very different styles on the feet. Reiter will be looking to tie up and get his underhooks and ties while scott will try to keep his distance and work that blast double. Reiter finally beat Morgan two years ago at the tournament so it will be interesting to see how he does against morgans workout partner. Personally I think mack will win this and probably make the finals this year but for arguements sake I gave it to you.

141: Rivera vs Morgan another tossup but I think Minny matchs up much better in this match then at 133. Morgan and rivera have completely opposite styles, morgan is fairly defensive and loves to throw in those legs and ride. Rivera, while extremely competent on the mat is much more of an on the feet wrestler who simply wears his opponents down. If you look at last years results morgan won a lot of extremely close matches with scores like 4-3 and 3-2, he also lost to mueller and dwyer who while quality wrestlers are not anywhere near contention for a national title.

Rivera on the other hand dominated most of his opponents up until his injury against ruschell and I think his relentless style is too much for morgan to handle. Look for a close match up until the third period where a relentless manny asserts his will over a very tired morgan

Rivera by decision

149 Schlatter vs Simpson: Schlatter by MD
I dont doubt that a sophmore simpson is improved over last years self but he simply did not fair very well against top tier competition last year and I think schlatter is going to have a breakout year

157 Schlatter vs Mcspadden Schlatter by Dec
Mcspadden will probably also be improved this year but his results last year were simply put pretty bad. He wrestled a lot of tough competition and lost to pretty much all of it, he's proven himself tough enough to stay in the match even when he is outclassed however and I think thats what he does here, losing badly he still keeps CP to a decision.

165 T-Saf Vs Mason
I'm a huge T-Saf fan so its hard for me to be unbiased here but Mason turned a lot of heads come ncaas last year and hes just so dang hard to score on that I think he'll beat t-saf 9/10 in a very conservative low scoring match.
Mason by dec

174 Dretsch vs
I dont even know whos slotted here for Okie State but you have to give dretsch a considerable advantage. I'll say that okie state keeps it to a decision if they can stay on the feet but if it hits the mat look out for a major

184 Kish Vs Jensen
Kish demolished Jensen on the feet twice last year and I see little changing between then and now, Kish has his way with Jensen and I think will get the 6 or 7 tds he needs for the major.

Kish by MD

197 Minnesotas only real hole this coming year, sheltons nothing special but he'll be able to handle whoever makes the cut for minnesota (assuming yohn gets his RS which he should)

Shelton by DEC

Hvy Rosholt vs Nordhow
I have high expectations from these two and the gophers have proven themselves to be a consistant force in the heavyweight division, but at this point you have to go with the the proven commodity so Rosholt will get the Dec here.

Final Dual score: 23-12

IMO this isnt close this year Okie State just has too many holes to pull off a hostfra like upset.

Even if morgan won, mason and shelton got majors, and you got a pin at heavyweight (which is the worst I see happening because no one else on okie state is remotely capable of an upset IMO) it'd be a 20-20 tie

[yankeekev]

>>>>lost, There is no question that your scenario could happen....with a few exceptions

125 Ashmore is starting in place of Shinn. Ashmore is great on his feet. I know every one will call me a homer but this kid can AA and i don't project a Minny pin here

141 Morgan is great on his feet...last year he got defensive after getting the 1st takedown....the year before he was much more wide open.....he battled thru an injury last year and again IMHO he will return to his healthy form this year

165 Whomever gets the start here will be good....just because they couldn't beat Johnny is no reflection of their ability cuz very few beat Johnny but it won't be Mason

174 will be Mason who is finally growing into this weight and it showed last year at the tourney....if he gets on top he is deadly.

Soooooooo I concede 125 dec, 149 dec(Schlatter has to shoot to get a Major), 157 dec(whichever guy finally shoots loses on a counter...boring), 184 MD. So I only show Minny with 13 points and OSU with 18 unless someone gets a Major. If you throw in a pin at 125 it is still 18-16 OSU. I am sticking with my prediction that OSU matches up with Minny in a dual better than Iowa and wins this dual.

[lost]

You have a point about morgan he was way more wide open the year before and maybe he just hit a schlatteresque slump and will tear it up this coming year, 133 and 141 are easily tossups.

Everything I've heard points to mason at 165 but if he isnt there You definately have to give the advantage to Saf with Mason vs dretsch being a tossup, Okie state would fair better to have him at 165 in this dual. Dretsch and mason are 3-2 over the past two years with dretsch winning both of the matchups last year, t-saf was a national qualifier and is ranked in the top 10 in most polls.

As for ness he is excellent on his feet as well and more importantly he is absolutely deadly on top. One of the biggest problems most incoming highschool guys have in college is the higher level of mat wrestling, you can disagree with me here but I simply dont think that ashmore is going to be able to handle how physical ness is.

Theres no way ashmore is better then charlie falck on his feet at this point in their careers and ness was able to take falck down repeatedly and absolutely work him on the mat.

While it is not inconcievable that okie state could get a win here you need to agree that on paper at least minnesota is a definate favorite

Lets say you win ALL 3 of the tossup matchs and niether ness or schlatter scores bonus points (which wont happen)

You still have
125 Min Dec
133 OSU dec
141 OSU dec
149 Min Dec
157 Min Dec
165 Min dec
174 OSU dec
184 Min Major
197 OSU dec
285 OSU dec

If you cant even tell me whos starting at 165 theres no way you can give that to okie state just by the logic that "they were sitting behind johhny"

By that logic I should give nordhow the victory over rosholt because they were sitting behind Cole Konrad, who was much more dominate then hendricks ever was.

[setonhallpirate]

lost: I'm looking at the numbers (WrestlingReport.com rankings) side-by-side, and while they're showing 5-5, I'm not seeing where Oklahoma State can steal pull an upset without it being a SetonHallPirate over Cole Konrad by tech. fall type upset (BTW, I'd have to put on about 55 pounds to make the MINIMUM for 285).

125: #4 Jayson Ness (Gophers) vs. #20 Ben Ashmore
133: #1 Coleman Scott (Cowboys) vs. #3 Mack Reiter
141: #3 Nathan Morgan (Cowboys) vs. #6 Manuel Rivera
149: #1 Dustin Schlatter (Gophers) vs. unranked Dakotah Simpson
157: #5 C.P. Schlatter (Gophers) vs. #20 Newly Erisman (or is it Neil McSpadden?)
165: #8 Tyler Safratowich (Gophers) vs. #21 Jake Dieffenbach
174: #3 Brandon Mason (Cowboys) vs. #6 Gabe Dretsch
184: #2 Roger Kish (Gophers) vs. #18 Jack Jensen
197: #23 Jared Shelton (Cowboys) vs. unranked Brent Eidenschenk
285: #12 Jared Rosholt (Cowboys) vs. #23 Joe Berhow (or is it Ben Nord?)

If any Oklahoma State Cowboy is that much better than any Minnesota Golden Gopher that they'd be likely to pick up bonus points, I'd like to be told where...likewise, if you think none of the Gophers would pick up bonus points, please tell me...

I'm not a fan of any particular school, but I'll be shocked if Minnesota doesn't take the same Grand Slam that they took home last year, namely the SetonHallPirate/Intermat Computer Ranking Dual Meet Titles (there are two of those, remember), the NWCA National Duals Title, and the NCAA Championship.

[yankeekev]

I grant you when OSU beats Minny it will be considered an upset.......Minny is ranked #1, if anyone beats them it will be an upset.....but look how far the score has moved....he predicted 23-12 and now it isn't a shock if it is split 5-5. If you think a fall couldn't occur at 97 or hvy your mistaken and it only takes one hungry new guy making a name for himself and we win. John Smith isn't considered the best for nothing.....Last year we beat Iowa on a pin from Simpson and Shelton got a injury dq because Iowa's wrestler allowed his shoulder to be ripped out of socket instead of rolling over which would have resulted in a pin. I won't be shocked if Minny wins the dual but to act like OSU has a small chance means when we win you will be shocked.....I didn't say we would win 9 of 10 and you agree there is a good chance that it will go 5-5 and if Minny leaves it that close I predict OSU pulls it out.

Yankeekev

[lost]

I agree Seton and the thing is 3 of the matches where the rankings favor the okies are ones that minnesota could win while I dont see any way okie state is going to beat ness kish or the schlatter brothers. Furthermore Dieffenbach might be a NAIA champ but remember yura was a a former JuCo champ who had beaten shelton before and he got majored last year. Is there really a big difference between NAIA wrestling and JUCO? Thats an honest question, but either way I know neither of them are even close to D1 level.

[lost]

yankeekev said:

I grant you when OSU beats Minny it will be considered an upset.......Minny is ranked #1, if anyone beats them it will be an upset.....but look how far the score has moved....he predicted 23-12 and now it isn't a shock if it is split 5-5. If you think a fall couldn't occur at 97 or hvy your mistaken and it only takes one hungry new guy making a name for himself and we win. John Smith isn't considered the best for nothing.....Last year we beat Iowa on a pin from Simpson and Shelton got a injury dq because Iowa's wrestler allowed his shoulder to be ripped out of socket instead of rolling over which would have resulted in a pin. I won't be shocked if Minny wins the dual but to act like OSU has a small chance means when we win you will be shocked.....I didn't say we would win 9 of 10 and you agree there is a good chance that it will go 5-5 and if Minny leaves it that close I predict OSU pulls it out.

Yankeekev

Yankeev I DONT think there is a realistic possibility of it going 5 and 5, Three of the matches you are counting on have to be considered tossups at best and even if okie won all 3 they still would have to pick up more bonus points at 197/HVY then minny does at 125 149 157 and 184, and I just dont see that happening in a million years.

Hostfra was able to pull off the upset last year because A) the gophers were missing reiter and B) They had a ranked wrestler in every weight class except 149 and HVY, Okie state has pretty sizeable holes at 149, 157, 197 and until he proves something 165.

I'll give you this though, okie state has the best chance of pulling off an upset this year of any team I can think of.

[setonhallpirate]

Just an FYI, guys, every other ranking I can dig up has it 5-4 Minnesota, with neither wrestler ranked in 197 (125, 149, 157, 165, 184 to the Gophers, 133, 141, 174, 285 to the Cowboys), and the margin in the weights that Oklahoma State has the edge in is far smaller than the margin in the weights where the advantage goes to Minnesota. Sure, Minnesota may have graduated the Hammer, but the Gophers this year are far and away the best team in the country, in both dual-meet and tournament strength. Don't fret too much though, yankeekev...Reiter, Rivera, CP Schlatter, Dretsch, and Kish are all seniors, meaning they'll be far more beatable next year...

[l8agin]

Let's try the history approach
LAST YEAR
#3 Minnesota 21, #1 Oklahoma State 15,

Sports Pavilion * Minneapolis, Minn.

125- #8 Jayson Ness (UMN) Dec. Tyler Shinn (OSU); 6-3
Sub Asmore
same result 0-3

133- #4 Coleman Scott (OSU) Maj. Dec. Mike Thorne (UMN); 10-1
Sub Reiter
nearly same result 3-3
If Coleman loses he doesn't deserve to be #1
But since he is #1, lets give him his due.

141- #6 Manuel Rivera (UMN) Maj. Dec. Ethan Kyle (OSU); 13-3
Sub Morgan
The switch is on
different result 6-3
I don't care how much you want Rivera to win
This is Morgan's year!

149- #1 Dustin Schlatter (UMN) Tech. Fall Ryan Freeman (OSU); 15-0; 4:32
Whatever
same result 6-8
OK Dustin gets up for OSU matches and goes all out, fine
Can someone who cares tell me why he doesn't do it all the time?
A waste of talent, I will take Alan Fried or Espo or ever Reggie
over this guy any day of the week.

157- Newly McSpadden (OSU) Maj. Dec. Tyler Safratowich (UMN); 11-3
Sub CP
I can't even predict the score of this match so I will predict the number of shots
1-0 in favor of Minn. So OSU will WIN!
nearly the same result 9-8

165- #1 Johny Hendricks (OSU) Maj. Dec. Jeremy Larson (UMN); 19-6
Sub Jake and Tyler
nearly same result 13-8
see the above last year result
how does a backup 157 pounder that lost a major beat our starting 165. He doesn't. And if he does we need a new 165.

174- #11 Gabe Dretsch (UMN) Dec. #16 Brandon Mason (OSU); 3-1
another switch 16-8
right now I would start feeling a little nervous for the defending National Champs!

184- #2 Roger Kish (UMN) Dec. Jack Jensen (OSU); 13-7
same result 16-11
somehow I don't think they are feeling any better!

197- Jared Shelton (OSU) Dec. Yura Malamura (UMN); 9-2
same people same result 19-11
different people same result 19-11

285- #1 Cole Konrad (UMN) Dec. #19 Jared Rosholt (OSU); 3-1
Sub Minn freshman
new result 22-11

THIS YEAR
new DUAL CHAMPIONS OSU!!!

Here is the thing, duals win nothing, so I will go and scream my head off, but in the end I know, duals win nothing. I no longer care about the final scores only to see that the wrestlers are improving toward the goal of scoring takedowns on the opponents and turning those shoulders over. And stop kidding yourselves OSU matches up with Minn in a dual very well.

OH NO I WAS WRONG
MINNESOTA WINS 157

we will still win the dual 19-14.

[setonhallpirate]

OSU matches up with Minnesota better than any other team in the country...that being said, I'm disagreeing with your assessments of 157 and 165. Tyler was a different wrestler the second half of the year (particularly after his shocker over Stith), and if it takes a while for him to get into the same form this year, the bad news for the Stillwater faithful is that the meet is February 3rd this year, not December 6th like last year.

I'll say this though, and I beg of everybody, don't get too carried away with all of this. Last I checked, with the exception of a twenty-one TigerFish (roughly) and three Sooners, everybody's record is 0-0. In other words, l8again, lost, and yankeekev, all of this chest-thumping is basically "my dad is better than your dad".

My personal opinion is that Minnesota, this year, is head-and-shoulders above everybody else, in both a dual-meet and tournament capacity. Does that make everybody else wrong, of course not! Further, my opinion is subject to change. As I said earlier, exactly two-dozen Division I wrestlers have wrestled this year, and three-quarters of them will not get a chance to wrestle without "unattached" being scrawled next to their school. Let's wait until we get some hard numbers in before we start proclaiming ourselves "2007-2008 SetonHallPirate/Intermat National Dual Meet Champions". At this point, Utah Valley State has as much of a claim to that title as Minnesota does.