Post by johnnythompsonnum1 on Jul 27, 2014 0:00:26 GMT -5
I certainly would love to see Edinboro be in the hunt for the NCAA title this year, but I just don't think in a war of attrition they have enough artillery to get the job done. With Schopp and Habat both being NCAA title contenders and Port even being the one guy I'll give a legitimate chance of keeping Logan Stieber from four NCAA titles, it'd take miracle performances out of Mines and Avery for the Fighting Scotts to win the NCAA title this year.
I think it will most likely come down to a battle between Penn State and Iowa, with Minnesota and Cornell creeping up alongside them as Dark horses. I'm not a huge fan of watching the same team win over and over again. It's much more exciting when the title shifts back and forth between schools, yet even though Iowa looks poised to win the championship this year, I think it is still Penn State's to lose.
Things certainly look better for the Hawkeyes seeing the graduation of wrestling Gods David Taylor and Ed Ruth. Yet they lost a lot of power in their lineup as well saying goodbye to Tony Ramos, Derek St John and even though he had a nightmare of a tournament last season Ethen Lofthouse. Iowa as of late has had a history of underperforming at the NCAA's. That is sometimes due to injuries and other times it's due to having a couple of bad days on the mat. No one could've predicted three time NCAA finalist Matt McDonough finishing in the R12 two years ago and the Hawkeye faithful were expecting a much better result out of highly seeded Lofthouse than a 1-2 record last year.
Let's take a weight by weight analysis.
125 - Penn State's Nico Megaludis has finished thus far 2nd-2nd-3rd in his career. Whether Iowa slots Cory Clark or Thomas Gilman here doesn't make much difference, I give the nod to Megaludis to finish higher. On paper I have Megaludis finishing anywhere between 1st and 3rd with Gilman or Clark finishing 4th.
133 - Here I feel just the opposite in comparison. Whether Iowa wrestles Clark or Gilman and whether Penn State wrestles Jimmy Gulibon or Jordan Conaway doesn't matter. I think either Iowa wrestler beats either Penn State wrestler. 133 while it has cleared out quit a bit due to graduation, isn't as weak of a weight as might be initially thought. Northern Iowa graduated Joe Colon, but backup Levi Wolfensperger who finished R12 two years ago comes back as a very good replacement. Alan Waters from Missouri who still might go 125, is also back from a redshirt season. With Schopp, Ohio State's Johnni DiJulius, Oklahoma's Cody Brewer, Lehigh's Mason Beckman, Chattanooga's Nick Soto, Lehigh's Mark Grey, Maryland's Geoff Alexander and Virginia's George DiCamillo this will not be an easy weight to All American. I think whoever Iowa places at this weight class will finish between 6th-8th with Penn State making the R12.
141 - Retherford was one of the most exciting and talented rookies of the year in 2014. With a win over Logan Stieber during the regular season, he has proven he has the ability to beat anyone and be a national champion. No doubt about it, he'll score big points for the Nittany Lions. Iowa's Josh Dziewa is going to have to step it up big time and beat some guys on the mat, that he isn't beating on paper. Now, as a result of last year's Midlands and two wins over All American Richard Durso of Franklin and Marshall he has proven that he can do just that. It'll take beating guys that he's never beaten before for his performance to have enough impact in propelling the Hawkeyes over the Nittany Lions.
149 - Hawkeye fans keep talking about how Brody Grothus, who did not qualify for last year's NCAA tournament as a freshman had a multitude of wins over many of those that did, including notable wins over last year's All Americans. I hate to be the one to break it to them, but even with the clearing out of some really good seniors, 149 isn't any easier this year than it was last year. Grothus is going to have to wrestle his butt off just to make it to the R12 and if he wants to get on the podium, even at 8th place, he'll have to wrestle about perfectly. The situation isn't much different for Penn State's Andrew Alton, who both on paper and on the mat is similar to Grothus in many regards. Both have the capability to do outstanding. Both have the capability to completely tank and not even qualify. In the battle of mountain, Penn State relies heavily on Andrew Alton to stay on top and Iowa relies heavily on Grothus to knock them off.
157 - Similar situation here. It's hard to believe that as a freshman Penn State's Dylan Alton handed James Green a couple of losses and finished a very impressive 3rd at the NCAA tournament. He has yet to make it back to the podium and seems to only be a shell of his former self as he enters his fourth and final season as a Nittany Lion. Even though I'm more of an Iowa fan, I'm a wrestling fan first and foremost and even more so a fan of redemption. I'd love to see Dylan Alton take this season by storm and get back to his old self. Believe me, if he wrestles anything like he is is capable of, Iowa can kiss it's chances of a title goodbye because he has the tools to win it all. However, it's also an even more realistic scenario that he continues to wrestle like crap as he has the last two years and he doesn't even finish in the R12. That would be much to the Hawkeyes advantage, but they're still going to need Mike Kelly or Brandon Sorenson, whomever they decide to wrestle here to step it up a notch and wrestling beyond expectation. Really that's the one thing that seems to be hindering the Hawks for next season is the fact that they have a solid lineup of guys top to bottom. The only problem is, 1/2 of them seem to be guys that will win Iowa a lot of important dual meets, but 9th-16th in their respective weight classes when they really need 8th or better for a team title. 157 is loaded with Minnesota's Dylan Ness, Nebraska's James Green, Kent State's Ian Miller, Cornell's Brian Realbuto, Wisconsin's Isaac Jordan, and Rutger's Anthony Perrotti. Let's also not forget that Virginia Tech's Nick Brascetta comes back off a redshirt as does Ohio State's Josh Demas. Back off an injury is Cal Poly's Max Schneider and Michigan's Brian Murphy could turn some heads as well. For Penn State or Iowa, either one to score many points here, we're talking some major upsets.
165 - This is where things really count for Iowa. I'd say if I had to pick a weight class that is most important for Iowa to do well at, this is it. I hate to put so much pressure on the shoulders of Nick Moore, but he can't have a bad tournament like his has the last two year's at the 2015 NCAA tournament. He'll not only have to wrestle to seed, he'll have to wrestle above it. He can, no doubt about it. He's beaten an ample amount of top competition, including a win over last year's NCAA runner up Tyler Caldwell. Now while I don't see him defeating Oklahoma State's Alex Dieringer, there isn't anyone else at 165 that he can't beat. Only problem is, will he? 165 overall is a funny weight, with tons of parity that make it difficult to predict. After Dieringer I suppose you could say that Virginia's Nick Sulzer has placed himself as the top contender for 2nd place. That silver medal however, is as much up for grabs for Moore as it is anyone's though. The idea of him not even making the R12 is though too I suppose. As I said before, he'll have to wrestle extremely well.
174 - A very important weight for both Penn State and Iowa as the rivalry continues between Matt Brown and Mike Evans. Evans defeated Brown at the BIG 10's, yet lost to him in the 5th place match at the NCAA's last year. This year, the war between the two will be no different, with of course also having to throw in the wrenches of Nebraska's Robert Kokesh and Minnesota's Logan Storley. Both Brown and Evans have the ability to be NCAA champions. Seeing how the NCAA tournament can sometimes come down to a match, who wins here could be the difference between which team brings home the title.
184 - Penn State obviously lost much more here with the graduating departure of Ed Ruth, but the loss of Ethen Lofthouse is hurts for the Hawkeyes as well. I'm not sure exactly who Penn State has as Ruth's replacement, but I believe Iowa puts in Sammy Brooks as Lofthouse's replacement. When people start discussing NCAA team championships, they often think of the guys that are going to win National titles and make All American status, often forgetting how the guys that win 1 or 2 matches help contribute to the overall team score too. That could very well be the case at this weight class for both the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes.
197 - Once again, Penn State gets the nod here as I believe Morgan McIntosh has Nathan Burak's number. 197 could shape up to be a much tougher weight class than anticipated. Everyone and their dog is touting Ohio State freshman Kyle Snyder to perhaps be the best freshman of the year. There is a chance we could see Andrew Campolotanno sporting a Rutger's singlet on the mat next year and if Oregon State's Taylor Meeks is back to form, look out. McIntosh finished in 7th place last year and Burak right behind in 8th. It'll be tough for either of them to improve on their finishes, but for the team's sake, they'll have to.
HWT - Iowa's Bobby Telford looks for his third All American season this year, but for the Hawkeyes to upend the Nittany Lions he'll have to make a serious threat for an individual NCAA title. Not an easy task whatsoever seeing North Carolina State's Nick Gwiazdowski and Northwestern's Mike McMullan are both back. It's also wise for wrestling fans to be well aware of Arizona State's Kyle Colling, the least mentioned, least talked about, and least known plausible NCAA champion for next year. Add in Michigan's Adam Coon, who after a phenomenal regular season had a disappointing post season and the ever so unpredictable Spencer Myers of Maryland and suddenly we have ourselves a very interesting weight class. Telford wrestles as he has, we're looking at a middle All American finish of 4th, 5th or 6th. He'll need to wrestle better than he ever has before to finish any higher. Penn State's Jon Gingrich has been a real trooper over the last few years and Iowa is going to have to rely on him not sneaking into one of those lower spots on the podium of 7th or 8th. You hate to have to put it into negative terms, but the truth of the matter is Iowa relies as much on Penn State not doing well as they do on themselves doing well.
I think it will most likely come down to a battle between Penn State and Iowa, with Minnesota and Cornell creeping up alongside them as Dark horses. I'm not a huge fan of watching the same team win over and over again. It's much more exciting when the title shifts back and forth between schools, yet even though Iowa looks poised to win the championship this year, I think it is still Penn State's to lose.
Things certainly look better for the Hawkeyes seeing the graduation of wrestling Gods David Taylor and Ed Ruth. Yet they lost a lot of power in their lineup as well saying goodbye to Tony Ramos, Derek St John and even though he had a nightmare of a tournament last season Ethen Lofthouse. Iowa as of late has had a history of underperforming at the NCAA's. That is sometimes due to injuries and other times it's due to having a couple of bad days on the mat. No one could've predicted three time NCAA finalist Matt McDonough finishing in the R12 two years ago and the Hawkeye faithful were expecting a much better result out of highly seeded Lofthouse than a 1-2 record last year.
Let's take a weight by weight analysis.
125 - Penn State's Nico Megaludis has finished thus far 2nd-2nd-3rd in his career. Whether Iowa slots Cory Clark or Thomas Gilman here doesn't make much difference, I give the nod to Megaludis to finish higher. On paper I have Megaludis finishing anywhere between 1st and 3rd with Gilman or Clark finishing 4th.
133 - Here I feel just the opposite in comparison. Whether Iowa wrestles Clark or Gilman and whether Penn State wrestles Jimmy Gulibon or Jordan Conaway doesn't matter. I think either Iowa wrestler beats either Penn State wrestler. 133 while it has cleared out quit a bit due to graduation, isn't as weak of a weight as might be initially thought. Northern Iowa graduated Joe Colon, but backup Levi Wolfensperger who finished R12 two years ago comes back as a very good replacement. Alan Waters from Missouri who still might go 125, is also back from a redshirt season. With Schopp, Ohio State's Johnni DiJulius, Oklahoma's Cody Brewer, Lehigh's Mason Beckman, Chattanooga's Nick Soto, Lehigh's Mark Grey, Maryland's Geoff Alexander and Virginia's George DiCamillo this will not be an easy weight to All American. I think whoever Iowa places at this weight class will finish between 6th-8th with Penn State making the R12.
141 - Retherford was one of the most exciting and talented rookies of the year in 2014. With a win over Logan Stieber during the regular season, he has proven he has the ability to beat anyone and be a national champion. No doubt about it, he'll score big points for the Nittany Lions. Iowa's Josh Dziewa is going to have to step it up big time and beat some guys on the mat, that he isn't beating on paper. Now, as a result of last year's Midlands and two wins over All American Richard Durso of Franklin and Marshall he has proven that he can do just that. It'll take beating guys that he's never beaten before for his performance to have enough impact in propelling the Hawkeyes over the Nittany Lions.
149 - Hawkeye fans keep talking about how Brody Grothus, who did not qualify for last year's NCAA tournament as a freshman had a multitude of wins over many of those that did, including notable wins over last year's All Americans. I hate to be the one to break it to them, but even with the clearing out of some really good seniors, 149 isn't any easier this year than it was last year. Grothus is going to have to wrestle his butt off just to make it to the R12 and if he wants to get on the podium, even at 8th place, he'll have to wrestle about perfectly. The situation isn't much different for Penn State's Andrew Alton, who both on paper and on the mat is similar to Grothus in many regards. Both have the capability to do outstanding. Both have the capability to completely tank and not even qualify. In the battle of mountain, Penn State relies heavily on Andrew Alton to stay on top and Iowa relies heavily on Grothus to knock them off.
157 - Similar situation here. It's hard to believe that as a freshman Penn State's Dylan Alton handed James Green a couple of losses and finished a very impressive 3rd at the NCAA tournament. He has yet to make it back to the podium and seems to only be a shell of his former self as he enters his fourth and final season as a Nittany Lion. Even though I'm more of an Iowa fan, I'm a wrestling fan first and foremost and even more so a fan of redemption. I'd love to see Dylan Alton take this season by storm and get back to his old self. Believe me, if he wrestles anything like he is is capable of, Iowa can kiss it's chances of a title goodbye because he has the tools to win it all. However, it's also an even more realistic scenario that he continues to wrestle like crap as he has the last two years and he doesn't even finish in the R12. That would be much to the Hawkeyes advantage, but they're still going to need Mike Kelly or Brandon Sorenson, whomever they decide to wrestle here to step it up a notch and wrestling beyond expectation. Really that's the one thing that seems to be hindering the Hawks for next season is the fact that they have a solid lineup of guys top to bottom. The only problem is, 1/2 of them seem to be guys that will win Iowa a lot of important dual meets, but 9th-16th in their respective weight classes when they really need 8th or better for a team title. 157 is loaded with Minnesota's Dylan Ness, Nebraska's James Green, Kent State's Ian Miller, Cornell's Brian Realbuto, Wisconsin's Isaac Jordan, and Rutger's Anthony Perrotti. Let's also not forget that Virginia Tech's Nick Brascetta comes back off a redshirt as does Ohio State's Josh Demas. Back off an injury is Cal Poly's Max Schneider and Michigan's Brian Murphy could turn some heads as well. For Penn State or Iowa, either one to score many points here, we're talking some major upsets.
165 - This is where things really count for Iowa. I'd say if I had to pick a weight class that is most important for Iowa to do well at, this is it. I hate to put so much pressure on the shoulders of Nick Moore, but he can't have a bad tournament like his has the last two year's at the 2015 NCAA tournament. He'll not only have to wrestle to seed, he'll have to wrestle above it. He can, no doubt about it. He's beaten an ample amount of top competition, including a win over last year's NCAA runner up Tyler Caldwell. Now while I don't see him defeating Oklahoma State's Alex Dieringer, there isn't anyone else at 165 that he can't beat. Only problem is, will he? 165 overall is a funny weight, with tons of parity that make it difficult to predict. After Dieringer I suppose you could say that Virginia's Nick Sulzer has placed himself as the top contender for 2nd place. That silver medal however, is as much up for grabs for Moore as it is anyone's though. The idea of him not even making the R12 is though too I suppose. As I said before, he'll have to wrestle extremely well.
174 - A very important weight for both Penn State and Iowa as the rivalry continues between Matt Brown and Mike Evans. Evans defeated Brown at the BIG 10's, yet lost to him in the 5th place match at the NCAA's last year. This year, the war between the two will be no different, with of course also having to throw in the wrenches of Nebraska's Robert Kokesh and Minnesota's Logan Storley. Both Brown and Evans have the ability to be NCAA champions. Seeing how the NCAA tournament can sometimes come down to a match, who wins here could be the difference between which team brings home the title.
184 - Penn State obviously lost much more here with the graduating departure of Ed Ruth, but the loss of Ethen Lofthouse is hurts for the Hawkeyes as well. I'm not sure exactly who Penn State has as Ruth's replacement, but I believe Iowa puts in Sammy Brooks as Lofthouse's replacement. When people start discussing NCAA team championships, they often think of the guys that are going to win National titles and make All American status, often forgetting how the guys that win 1 or 2 matches help contribute to the overall team score too. That could very well be the case at this weight class for both the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes.
197 - Once again, Penn State gets the nod here as I believe Morgan McIntosh has Nathan Burak's number. 197 could shape up to be a much tougher weight class than anticipated. Everyone and their dog is touting Ohio State freshman Kyle Snyder to perhaps be the best freshman of the year. There is a chance we could see Andrew Campolotanno sporting a Rutger's singlet on the mat next year and if Oregon State's Taylor Meeks is back to form, look out. McIntosh finished in 7th place last year and Burak right behind in 8th. It'll be tough for either of them to improve on their finishes, but for the team's sake, they'll have to.
HWT - Iowa's Bobby Telford looks for his third All American season this year, but for the Hawkeyes to upend the Nittany Lions he'll have to make a serious threat for an individual NCAA title. Not an easy task whatsoever seeing North Carolina State's Nick Gwiazdowski and Northwestern's Mike McMullan are both back. It's also wise for wrestling fans to be well aware of Arizona State's Kyle Colling, the least mentioned, least talked about, and least known plausible NCAA champion for next year. Add in Michigan's Adam Coon, who after a phenomenal regular season had a disappointing post season and the ever so unpredictable Spencer Myers of Maryland and suddenly we have ourselves a very interesting weight class. Telford wrestles as he has, we're looking at a middle All American finish of 4th, 5th or 6th. He'll need to wrestle better than he ever has before to finish any higher. Penn State's Jon Gingrich has been a real trooper over the last few years and Iowa is going to have to rely on him not sneaking into one of those lower spots on the podium of 7th or 8th. You hate to have to put it into negative terms, but the truth of the matter is Iowa relies as much on Penn State not doing well as they do on themselves doing well.